Soothsaying 2009

Les Margulis spent 25 years at BBDO New York as International Media Director, and then settled with his Australian wife, Ann, in Sydney. However, he couldn’t quit the business. The lure of Bondi Beach or the famed Opera season just wasn’t enough. Les formed his own company, Margulis Media Group, and has been doing some serious globetrotting with a seminar series on best practices for media agencies. His recent assignments have taken him from Kiev to Moscow to Dubai to TelAviv to Johannesberg, and next to Gainesville, Florida where he will serve for 4 months as a Freedom Forum
Professor of Advertising at the University of Florida.

He has found, however, that in his role as “trainer,” he is doing far more learning than teaching. In this new column for The Internationalist, Les Margulis will offer his perspective of how the concept of media is changing around the world, and he will share ideas and best practices from his various stops around the globe.

This is certainly the time of the year to look back at 2008 with not so fond memories and try our hand at prognostication for the year ahead in marketing and business around the world.

I am going to put the money on the table and say that 2009 is going to be an extraordinary year of change for business not only in America but in the other marketing centers as well.

I believe the business marketplace for 2009 will start off looking a bit grim but I have been through five recessions in my lifetime. I do believe that the only one that I truly missed was 1929. Age may not bring wisdom but I certainly bear the scars of buying at the top and selling at the bottom. I believe that the stimulus packages which have been implemented worldwide will seep down to the everyman and as the year progresses we will again see the consumer tip his or her toe back into the retail stores.

However, we will continue to see staff churn at the major companies and CMO’s will continue to have brief and inglorious life spans at their employers. The business professional will have to increasingly master the skill of being nimble and flexible.
Detroit’s melt down will forever change the look and feel of autos made in America. Green will be the color that is seen everywhere. Our awareness of our environment will be on the minds and lips of many industry leaders and will result in further social change.

I have a few predictions for 2009.

A Temporary Delay in Instant Gratification — For the first time in many decades, consumers will delay making non-essential purchases. Having the latest Sony HD plasma screen is probably not an unalienable right guaranteed by the American Declaration of Independence. Consumers will pare down their debt and do a bit of nesting either in front of the DVD player or individually connecting to their social acquaintances in the Blogosphere. But consumers being who and what they are will view continued softness at the mall as a once in a decade buying opportunity. After all, the more money spent on bargains, the more money saved. That is the “new” math.

Obamaism Will Take Effect — 2009 will begin an era of financial conservatism. As he promised, the new President will issue in Change: Change in Washington; Change in the principal regulatory agencies; Change in America; and Change in foreign policy. Consumers will respond to that change as the world looks to America for economic and political leadership and stability. He will slow down Big government, lax market regulation and actually reflect more traditional Republican economic values (with certain key exceptions).

Media All the Time, Anytime. Our lives (famous and not so famous) will be continued to be shared with neighbours, “friends,” total strangers and fellow inhabitants of the transient world of on line sharing and baring of our souls. Take your connection of choice (please no more than 3 allowed at any given time). You can have tweets, YouTube, FaceBook, MySpace, blogs, wikis, and countless other on line formats and websites that grow weekly…I think all looking to make that personal as well as financial connection (am I being too mercenary?). Of course, everyone is tied to the hip with either a PDA, IPhone, Google Phone, Blackberry, Trio, Palm or other device that soft wires you back to an instantaneous connection so you never miss a beat (oh yes, please do turn it off in the darkened cinemas and let us be two hours without a beep or a blog).

Business as a Social Network — All businesses will finally realize that the last customer served is the one that counts the most. These Ambassadors of good will (or evil) will drive business to compete on a more even ground since unsatisfactory service will not be tolerated as it will be known almost instantaneously to the world. Good word of mouth will spread and since almost everyone is a potential consumer. Business will live or die on service and the Ambassadors will proselyte to the unbelievers and convert through online connections and social networks.

Back to Basics — Businesses are going to go back to age-old rule that it costs much more to get a new customer than it is to hold on to a current one. We are going to see marketers go back to the three customer focused rules of marketing: Customer Satisfaction, Customer Retention and Customer Loyalty.
And further, companies are going after ROI with a laser focus. I think the rule of thumb in a recession year is that if it doesn’t pay out, you don’t do it.

Meet Web 3.0 — We will continue our transition to Kubrick’s 2001 world where the computer software tools actively engage us and meet our needs based upon learned patterns. The social networking sites will continue to evolve and build bridges in our lives that continually change as we change and as our mood changes. Web 2.0 was a a static and fixed world compared to 3.0 where our needs will be anticipated.

As we have heard sung on Broadway in days of gloom, “The sun'll come out
Tomorrow..So ya gotta hang on “Til tomorrow.” I believe that the manufacturing engine of the world, China, will start its journey back from the precipice of economic disaster long before America and Europe. But there is a road back to recovery albeit with potholes and bumps. The stock market will start trending up but every day is not going to be a stellar 500 point leap over the moon. I foresee pent up consumer demand (70% of America’s economic strength) starting to ignite the last quarter of 2009. I see another boom by the middle of 2010 and stretching to the end of President’s Obama’s first term. It maybe a “hard knock life” now but the sun will really come out tomorrow.

Trust me on this one.